Featuring Craig Barnell (Director of Customer Insights, Inventory Optimizer; COO, Fishers Finery) and Ryan Carbone (Director of Support & Product Implementation, Inventory Optimizer).
As ecommerce brands scale across channels, advertising and inventory decisions are increasingly connected. In this episode of If You Don’t Have It, You Can’t Sell It, Craig and Ryan break down a growing problem. Advertising spend often continues even when inventory cannot support demand. The result is wasted spend, lost sales, and declining listing performance.
The Challenge
Many sellers optimize advertising based on performance metrics alone, without accounting for inventory constraints or future demand. This creates a disconnect between marketing and inventory planning.
When products are selling well, advertising often increases. But if inventory is not aligned, sellers risk running out of stock while continuing to spend on ads.
As Craig explains, the issue is simple:
“Why would we overspend on advertising if we know a product is going to run out of stock? Slow your spend and redeploy those resources somewhere they can actually drive growth.”
This leads to:
- Wasted advertising spend on products that cannot sustain sales
- Lost revenue when products go out of stock
- Negative impact on listing performance when availability drops
The Strategy
Instead of reacting after stockouts occur, Fishers Finery uses forecasting to anticipate when inventory and sales velocity will fall out of sync.
- Current inventory levels
- Sales velocity
- Lead times for replenishment
The team can identify when a product will sell out before the next shipment arrives.
As Craig puts it:
“If you know what’s going to happen, let’s anticipate instead of react when it’s too late.”
When that happens, sellers can:
- Reduce advertising spend to slow demand
- Increase price to manage sales velocity
- Shift budget to products with available inventory
This ensures advertising dollars are used where inventory can support continued sales.
Applying the Same Logic to Seasonality
This same approach applies to seasonal products, where demand changes are predictable.
For example, Fishers Finery’s cashmere products perform strongly in fall and winter but decline as spring approaches. By using historical data and forecasts, the team can reduce advertising before demand drops.
This avoids overspending as search volume declines and keeps campaigns aligned with real demand.
Allocating Spend Based on Inventory Position
Forecasting also identifies where to increase investment.
When a product has sufficient inventory and strong demand, sellers can confidently increase advertising to capture more market share.
When inventory is limited or demand is declining, spend can be reduced and reallocated.
The goal is simple. Do not spend where inventory cannot support demand, and invest where it can.
The Results
By aligning advertising with inventory forecasting, Fishers Finery is able to:
- Reduce wasted ad spend on products nearing stockout
- Protect listing performance by avoiding out of stock scenarios
- Reallocate budget to products with available inventory
- Improve overall return on advertising spend
Instead of reacting after issues occur, the team adjusts pricing and advertising based on forecasted demand.
Takeaway
Advertising and inventory planning should not operate independently.
When forecasting informs marketing decisions, sellers can avoid stockouts, reduce wasted spend, and invest with confidence.
Inventory Optimizer enables this by:
- Analyzing sales velocity and inventory levels
- Forecasting when products will run out
- Helping sellers adjust pricing and advertising based on real-time conditions
As Craig summarizes:
“If you have confidence in your forecast, you can make business decisions without guesswork. That’s how you deploy dollars where they reduce cost and increase revenue.”
Watch the episode or learn how Inventory Optimizer helps align forecasting, inventory, and advertising decisions across your business.
